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什么是火灾风险评估
Chapter2 火灾风险评估的基本概念
本章引入火灾风险评估的基本概念
火灾风险评估－fire risk assessment
指对火灾－人们所不希望发生的这类事故的后果，带给人员和财产的风险的评估。
综述
Basic concepts of fire risk assessment will be introduced in this chapter.
The term fire risk assessment refers to assessing risks to both people and property as a consequence of unwanted fires.
overview
In a simple risk assessment the probability of a certain unwanted fire scenario is considered and the consequence of that scenario are explored.
In a comprehensive risk assessment all probable unwanted fire scenarios and their consequences are considered.
在简单的火灾风险评估过程中，仅对某些或某类火灾场景发生的可能性和结果进行分析和评估；
在全面或综合的火灾风险评估过程中，对所有的可能火灾场景发生的可能性或结果进行分析和评估。
一个火灾场景(fire scenario )由一系列的火灾中的事件组成，这些火灾事件是推测可能在火灾过程中发生的事件，将某些防、灭火技术或管理措施的成功或失效/失败的过程连缀起来，就能够形成一个火灾场景。
因此一个火灾场景发生的可能性(probability)决定于这一系列事件中每一个防、灭火技术或管理措施的成功或失效/失败的可能性。
A fire scenario involves the projection of a set of fire events, all of which are linked together by whether the fire protection measures succeed or fail. The probability of a fire scenario is dependent on the individual probabilities of success or failure of fire protection measures.
对人员的风险(risk)既决定于能够对人员产生损害(harm)的火灾场景发生的可能性，又决定于火灾场景或者说火灾场景产生的后果(consequence )对人员造成损害的程度或水平(level of harm )。
通常应用火势增长、烟气传播、人员疏散、建筑结构响应和消防人员灭火效能等模型来对火灾场景的结果进行计算和模拟。
这部分内容不是本课程的授课内容，将在《建筑防火性能化设计》课程中讲述；而在了解火灾各个过程和阶段基本特征的基础上，建立相应火灾场景，分析火灾场景发生的可能性，是本课程的主要内容。
The risk to the occupants depends not only on the probability of the fire scenario that can lead to harm to the occupants, but also the level of harm to the occupants as a result of the consequence of that scenario. The consequence of a fire scenario can be assessed by using time-dependent modeling of fire and smoke spread, occupant evacuation and fire department response.