文档介绍：本科毕业论文外文翻译
外文题目:Using the permanent e hypothesis for forecasting.
出处:Economic Quarterly (10697225); Winter95, Vol. 81 Issue 1, p49, 15p, 2 Charts, 2 Graphs
作者: Ireland, Peter N.
原文:
ABSTRACT
Discusses the use of Milton Friedman's permanent e hypothesis to explain the behavior of consumption, e and savings in the United States. Irving Fisher's theory of interest; Robert Hall's mathematical version of the permanent e hypothesis; John Campbell's formulation of an econometric forecasting model using data on savings to project future e growth..
1. INTRODUCTION
Personal consumption expenditures grew by almost 2 percent during 1993 in real, per-capita terms. Real disposable e per capita, meanwhile, actually fell slightly. By definition, households draw down their savings when consumption grows faster than e. In fact, the figures for consumption and e just mentioned underlie a decline in the personal savings rate from over 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 1992 to only about 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 1993.
One popular interpretation of these data starts with the idea that reductions in the savings rate cannot be permanently sustained. Eventually, households must rebuild their savings by cutting back on consumption; to the extent that lower consumption leads to lower e, e must fall as well. Thus, in . News & Worm Report, David Hage (1993-94) used the behavior of consumption, e, and savings to forecast that the economy would slow in 1994: "[A] slowdown in consumer spending is likely, and it could trim an additional percentage point off growth" (p. 43). Around the same time, Gene Epstein (1993) of Barron's quoted economist Philip Braverman as saying that "consumers don't have the wherewithal to keep up the current spending pace. The prevailing euphoria will get knocked for a loop" (p. 37). Similarly, in DRI/McGraw-Hill's Review of the . Economy, professional forecaster Jill Thompson (1993) wrote: "All is not rosy, of course. Consumers went out o