文档介绍：Journal of International Development
J. Int. Dev. 10, 733±749 (1998)
MACHINERY AND CHINA'S NEXUS
OF FOREIGN TRADE AND
ECONOMIC GROWTH
DIC LO1* AND THOMAS M. H. CHAN2
1Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK
2China Business Centre, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong
Abstract: This paper oers an interpretation of China's nexus of foreign trade and
economic growth that centres around technological development. Evidence, mainly
related to the performance of the machinery sector, is presented indicating that the
phenomenal export expansion is not reducible to a market-centred trade regime, and
that the standard thesis of export-led growth would not apply Ð the contribution of
trade to growth realises rather through imports. With an emphasis on the central
importance of the production side, we present further evidence to substantiate the
argument that the relatively essful aspects of the trade±growth nexus have been
largely underpinned by a mix of the market mechanism and various non-market
institutions. # 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
1 INTRODUCTION
China's real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 10 per cent between 1980 and
1996, while the GDP share of its industry remained at basically the same level of
somewhat higher than 40 per cent. In the mean time, the country's total merchandise
exports and manufacturing exports grew (in nominal US dollar) at a rate of 14 and
18 per cent, respectively. This correspondence between the two trends of output and
foreign trade gives rise to the question concerning the causal relationship, if any,
between them.
* Correspondence to: D. Lo, Department of Economics, School of Oriental and African Studies,
University of London, Thornhaugh Street, Russell Square, London WC1H 0XG, UK.
Paper initially presented at the Development Studies Association Annual Conference, 18±20 September
1996, Reading, UK.
CCC 0954±1748/98/060733±17$
# 1998 John Wiley & Son