文档介绍：Asia China
munications

22 May 2009
Industry Update
pany Telco in Transition Vol V
Top picks
China Mobile (), Hold

China's initial 3G panies featured
China Mobile (), Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x)
Alan Hellawell William Bratton EV/EBITDA (x)
Price/book (x)
Research Analyst Research Analyst
China (), Sell
(+852) 2203 6240 (+852) 2203 6186 2008A 2009E 2010E
@ @
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Discounting indeed broadening. Handset bottleneck emerging. Price/book (x)
China (), Sell
A week-long project of both on-line study and shop visitation leads us to shift 2008A 2009E 2010E
outward our anticipated subscriber surge for CT and CU, while we see incremental P/E (x)
improvement in CM's pursuit of 3m TD subscribers. Cautious industry view EV/EBITDA (x)
maintained. CM preferred. Price/book (x)

Challenges in the channel…pushing out China sub surge to 2H
Much of our relative preference toward CT had been predicated on a May surge in
Global Markets adds. While the co continues to make solid progress on other fronts, our shop
survey suggests that the prerequisite handset refresh (incl EVDO) has not hit the
channels in number or variety yet. We thus defer our forecast jump in
adds (a potential short-term catalyst) from May to July.
ZTE presence growing across all works. TD handset, data card
variety impresses
We were most favorably surprised with the presence of ZTE models across all
three outlets. We moreover have a better understanding of how the co can
achieve an ambitious 40% handset unit growth globally in 09.
plete 3G portfolio actually China Mobile’s TD-SCDMA line-up
The broadest and deepest set of 3G es from China Mobile, with 11
data cards and books already available.