文档介绍：Research on Trading Situation between Vietnam and China: Issues and Solutions
The Thesis Submitted to Chongqing University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Master of Economics
By
NGUYEN KIEN
Supervised by Prof. Liu Yu Lin Major:International Trade
College of Trade and Administration Chongqing University, Chongqing , China May, 2011
摘 要
越南社会主义共和国与中华人民共和国边境接壤,社会文化,社会政治制度都有着相似之处。中越两国的贸易之所以区别于越南与其他国家的贸易,原因在于中越两国的贸易除了国际惯例外还体现在边境贸易方面。本论文以一些基本的贸易理论为支撑基础,从中越两国贸易历史入手,进行深入分析两国贸易的基本状况。包括:了解两国贸易过程中的商品总量、商品结构、投资情况、两国贸易的特征及中越两国对外贸易过程中互相竞争的关系。论文还谈到中越贸易发展过程中存在一些主要的问题。论文采用两国 1991-2008 贸易总额、进口额和出口额的相关数据并利用协整分析与 granger 因果检验方法,建立误差修正模型并进行了实证分析,揭示了越南的 GDP 增长与越南对中国进行进出口贸易间的相互作用。另一方面,越南加入 WTO 后,越南与中国的贸易发生了较大的变化,给越南的发展带同时来了机遇与挑战。论文的结尾在结合历史与现实面临的情况,为促进两国贸易健康持续的发展,符合两国人民的基本利益,本研究提出一些长远的发展贸易策略。
关键词:越南,中国,进出口贸易,越南 GDP 增长
ABSTRACT
Socialist Republic of Vietnam and People's Republic of China are neighbour contries. The two countries have a lot of similarities: social, culture and political system... If we focus on the trading between Vietnam and China, trading between Vietnam and China have also some special characteristics that not like trading among Vietnam and other countries, and one of the special characteristic, I think, we should take in to account: frontier trade.
This thesis takes some basic trade theory as the supporting foundation, analyzing some basic trade situations of two countries such as: the costing of modity, the structure modity, the investment situation, trading characteristics petitive relation in foreign trade sector between China and Vietnam. Besides, the thesis also mentions some main trading issues between the two countries. In this thesis, I use total trading cost, the import amount, the export amount from 1991 to 2008 as input data for cointegration granger causality tests, error correction model. Output of the work reveals Vietnam's GDP growth and trading between China from Vietnam have a correlated relation. Especially, after V