文档介绍：IWHR’s Global Forum, September 6, 2010
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND
FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS
FOR HYDRAULICS AND
HYDROLOGY ENGINEERS
Nobuyuki Tamai
President, International Association for Hydro-
Environment Engineering and Research
Professor Emeritus, the University of Tokyo
Honorary Professor, China Institute of Water Resources
and Hydropower Research
Trend of Global
Warming
All differences are relative
to corresponding
averages for the period
1961-1990. Smoothed
curves represent decadal
averaged values while
circles show yearly values.
The shaded areas are the
uncertainty intervals
estimated form
comprehensive analysis of
known uncertainties (a
and b) and from the time
series (c) (, 2007)
Impacts of Floods, Typhoons & Cyclones
Number of People Affected by Floods Number of People Affected by Typhoons
(annual average, 1980-2000) & Cyclones (annual average,1980-2000)
Water Related Natural Disaster and
the Death Tolls
Regional Distribution The death toll classified by
of Floods, 1990-2001 e level, 1975-2001
Local Torrential Downpours
Average 1976 Average Average 1998
to 1986, 1987 to 1997, to 2008,
times times times
Annual Occurrence of Torrential Downpours Higher Than 80mm/hr (average
occurrence per 1,000 observation points)
(Data: Meteorological Agency of Japan, 2009)
Sea level rise
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
1926-1935
1936-1945
1946-1955
1956-1965
1966-1975
1976-1985
1986-1996
1996-2005
Increase in the frequency of high water events in
Venice between 1926 and 2005 (number of
events equal to and higher than 110cm)
Data: Venice Water Authority Concessionary (2007)
IAHR 2007
Venice and
its lagoon
051208, Yomiuri online Consorzio Venezia Nuova
Venice, The MOSE sytem to
regulate tides in the lagoon
Mobile Barriers plementary measures
(Consorzio Venezia Nuova)
Impact of Climate Change on Flood Risk
In flood protection schemes we must estimate
safety l