文档介绍：摘 要
世界各国和地区之间的经济随着国际资本流动和国际贸易等的迅速发展,其联系越来越紧密。各国的经济周期也逐渐呈现出相互传导、相互影响的特征,其中最为明显的是协动性。
在世界经济一体化的大背景下,中国经济的增长迅猛,综合国力日益增强, 但其经济波动受世界经济周期的影响也在逐渐加强。因此本文着重研究中国经济周期与世界重要经济国家(以美国、德国、日本、巴西、俄罗斯、印度、澳大利亚、南非为研究样本国)经济波动之间的协动性。文章首先阐述了经济波动在国与国之间传导的渠道及其机制,然后结合中国现阶段各渠道的实际畅通情况,从贸易强度、外商直接投资、产业结构与经济周期协动四方面建立经济周期协动性传导因素指标体系,通过建立面板数据模型对其关系进行了实证研究,探讨了在经济全球化条件下,中国与研究样本国经济周期协动性的主要传导因素及其影响程度差异。研究结果表明:中国经济在总体上与其他各国的经济存在很大的协动性关系,其主要通过双边贸易渠道和双边直接投资渠道两种渠道在国与国之间进行传递,而产业结构相似度在中国与其他国家经济周期的协动过程中并不是很重要的因素。
最后,针对我国如何防御或避免世界经济波动的冲击,提出了加强国际政策协调、扩展国内市场、优化产业结构、优化出口市场结构等政策建议。
关键词:经济周期;协动性;传导因素;面板数据模型
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ABSTRACT
With the rapid development of international capital flows and international trade, etc,the economy relationship is more and more closely between the countries and regions in the world. The Nationals business cycle also gradually shows the characteristics of transmission and influence each other, one of the most obvious phenomenon is co-movement.
Under the background of world economic integration,China's economy is growing rapidly, prehensive national strength increasing, but its economic has also been gradually strengthened influenced by the world business cycle. So this article focuses on co-movement researchment between China's economic cycle and the important economic countries in the world (include United States, Germany, Japan, Brazil, Russia, India, Australia, South Africa). This paper expounds the economic fluctuations in the transmission channel and mechanism between countries, then take China's actual situation into account. From the intensity of trade, foreign direct investment, industrial structure and business cycle co-movement four aspects to establish business cycle co-movement transduction factor index system. researching on the relationship between the countries through the establishment of panel data model. Under the condition of economic globalization, discussed the main conduction factors and difference influence degree between China and the research samples in the business c