文档介绍：High-level Forum on
Green Development and Science & Technology Innovation
Affordable Renewable Energy to All:
A New Model for Technology Know How Transfer through
South South Cooperation
南南合作下的技能转移新模式:
让人人用得起新能源
亚洲开发银行· Asian Development Bank
北京·19 November 2010
Climate Change Scenarios 应对气候变化的远景
Current Policies
Scenario
New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
Temperature Rise
(°C)
6
2
GHG Concentration
(ppm CO2-eq)
1000
650
450
World Primary Energy
Demand (Mtoe)
16,800 in 2030
+%/year
16,700 in 2035
+%/year.
14,400 in 2030
+%/year
Renewable Energy Share of
Primary Energy Demand
《
7%-14% (2008-2035)
》
Renewable Energy Share of
Electricity Generation
《
19%-33%(2008-2035)
》
Source: World Energy Outlook 2010, IEA
Three Challenges of the Third World 第三世界面临三个挑战
Challenge of Subsistence 生存挑战- hunger, malaria, displaced 饥饿、疾病、流离失所
Challenge of Development 发展挑战
- sanitation, education, access to clean water, electricity 教育、卫生设施、通水电
Challenge of Climate Change 气候变化挑战
- extreme weathers (drought, flooding) 极端气候(干旱、洪涝)
Three Worlds within the Third World 第三世界中有三个世界
World of Subsistence 生存世界
- Low e Economies 低收入国家(<$1000/capita)
World in Development 发展世界
- Lower-Middle-e Economies 中低收入国家($1000-$4000/capita)
World of Nouveau Riche 新富世界
- Upper-Middle-e Economies 中高收入国家($4000-$12,000)
Electricity vs Human Development Index 用电与人类发展指数的关系
Source: UNDP, cited in Peabody’s presentation to World Energy Congress, 2010
Electricity Access in 2010 by Region
Population without electricity (million)
Electrification rate %
Urban electrification rate %
Rural electrification rate %
Africa
587
North Africa
2
Sub-Saharan Africa
585
Developing Asia
799
China & East Asia
186
South Asia
612
Latin America
31
Middle East
22
Developing countries
1,438
Transition