文档介绍：全球视野下的中国能源1
Chinese Energy from the Global Vision
潘克西李政2 倪维斗3
摘要:
中国能源真正的忧患存在于 2020 年以后,届时中国液体燃料的消费将十分
巨大,如若继续按现有模式发展,对世界石油格局产生的影响将是颠覆性的。要
避免冲突,我们就必须从现在起,认真对待和深入研究煤基液体燃料等前瞻性的
问题。本文立足于全球的视野和长远的观点,融合运用国际政治理论和能源技术
方法,阐明多极化的世界格局、均衡化的大国关系、务实性的区域合作有利于能
源工业的长远发展;指出全球能源需求增长总体平稳,资源不会成为能源供应的
限制性因素;强调交通领域能源消费的增长,不仅是发达国家,而且也是发展中
国家能源增长的主要动力和源泉。未来的中国能源问题,将更直接地表现为液体
燃料的供应问题,煤基液体燃料是最有可能大规模替代石油的新型燃料。
Abstract: The real misery of Chinese energy will appear after 2020,
when the consumption of liquid fuels es tremendous. If China
continues development by the existing mode, it will overturn the structure
of the world oil market. To avoid such conflicts, we have to seriously
deal with and research on such strategic problems as the coal-based liquid
fuel from now on. This paper bases on the global vision, takes a long-term
view bines international politics theories with energy technologic
methods to explain that the multi-poles world structure, the balanced
relationship among powerful countries and the realism of region
cooperation will benefit the long-term development of energy industry.
It also suggests that the global energy demand increases gradually so that
the resources won’t e the limiting factor of energy supplies. And
it emphasizes that the increase of the consumption in munication
field is the motivation and the source of energy increase not only for
1本文发表于《中国能源》2005 年第 2 期,刊载时有删节。
2李政:清华-BP清洁能源研究与教育中心主任教授博导
3倪维斗:中国工程院院士,教育部科技委主任,清华大学原副校长
developed countries but also for developing countries. It concludes that
the future Chinese energy problem will lie in the supply problem of liquid
fuels more directly and the coal-based liquid fuels may e the new
fuel, replacing oil on a large scale.
关键词:国际政治、世界能源、煤基液体燃料
Key Words: International Politics; World Energy; Coal-Based Liquid
Fuel
正文:
进入 21 世纪,世界多极化趋势在曲折中发展,经济全球化程度进一步加深,
科学技术不断取得重大突破。中国的工业化、城市化,特别是汽车化进程迅速加
快,经济社会正处于关键的发展时期,对能源保障的要求越来越高。
中国长期遵循