文档介绍：上海交通大学
硕士学位论文
中国利率变动影响房地产市场价格的机制研究
姓名:俞皙斐
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:金融学
指导教师:胡海鸥
20100113
中国利率变动影响房地产市场价格的机制研究
摘要
基于房地产与资金融通关系密切,本文具体探讨中国利率政策调
控对房地产价格的影响。首先回顾国内外对房价各影响因素的研究,
再从房地产供求角度出发,分析利率变动影响房价的具体机理,认为
利率调整同时反向作用于房地产供求双方,房价最终取决于房地产供
求利率弹性的相对大小。在对我国房地产市场存在的问题、高房价成
因和危害进行讨论后,接着分别研究中美两国利率调控房价的实践过
程,发现美国利率调控效果较明显,而我国利率调控效果较弱。
实证研究选择五种不同期限的存贷款基准利率、房价和地价指
数,建立 VAR 模型,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方
差分析等方法,发现我国房地产价格对利率变化的敏感性较差,利率
调控对房价的总体影响很弱。存贷款利率变动短期内对于房地产价格
有正向影响,长期才显示出负向影响。利率变动短期内不是我国房价
波动的格兰杰原因,但是长期具有一定影响。另外,贷款利率和短期
利率变动对房价的影响程度分别高于存款利率和中长期利率。
最后分析我国利率政策效果较弱的原因,主要有利率市场化程度
较低、利率传导机制不顺畅和房地产运行机制没有理顺等五点。并针
对各点原因,就如何理顺利率调控房价关系提出相应的政策建议。
关键词利率政策,房地产价格,调控效果,VAR 模型
RESEARCH
RATES AFFECT REALSTATE
ABSTRACT
and housing market, explore
inter prices in China. e
effect factors
interest rate
the perspective of demand and supply of the market,
a detailed m thataffect
housing prices. It is concluded
reverse acting on the housing supply and demand
whose relative elasticities decide the ultimate housing prices.
housing marketdevelopment
andmpacts of s, compare the
effect of interest rates policy between US and China and
S-period interest
for deposits and loans, housing price index and
and explore interest rates’
cointegrationG impulse response and
variance position. Find na's housing
less sensitive to interest rate and ’
I
housing prices in the s ,but have negative impacts i
can’housing
prices in the near term, but can affect them in the long run.
In addition, the impact of and short-term
on housprices are
-term rates.
Finally,reasons
regulation in China such as low degree of
marketization of interest rates
and real estate operating mechanism
s some suggestions respectively
estate -
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results, VAR model
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