文档介绍：上海交通大学
硕士学位论文
中国火电行业上市公司的投资价值研究
姓名:韩轶超
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:金融学
指导教师:仲健心
20100101
中国火电行业上市公司的投资价值研究

摘要

我国的火电行业目前正处于一个变革时期,供需矛盾趋缓、扩张
速度减缓、上网竞价即将来临和上游压力依然不减是这一时期的主要
特征。2008 年,煤炭价格上半年飙升,上网电价连续提升 2 次,央
行加息增加了各企业的财务费用,火电行业中有的企业获得了超过
20%以上的利润率,而有的企业则出现了巨额亏损,是何种竞争力的
因素带给它们如此大的差异,这些因素又是如何影响这些上市公司的
投资价值的?这是本文要解决的核心问题。
首先,本文运用迈克尔·波特的五力模型对我国火电行业进行了
竞争力分析,认为供应商的侃价能力和行业内公司的竞争是该行业的
主要竞争影响因素,而这两点最后又一齐聚焦到了火电公司的成本控
制上。
接着,本文将火电公司的成本逐一拆分,分析各细分成本的影响
和驱动因素,并利用这些驱动指标构建了火电行业的销售成本率预测
模型,发现当年煤炭均价、公司平均机组单机容量、加权平均机组已
投产年数、地理位置和煤炭平均运距这些因素对火电公司的销售成本
率具有显著的影响。
最后,本文利用该模型回测,发现该模型能够较好地预测火电类
上市公司的业绩,为火电行业中的投资决策提供一定的参考和指导意
见。
关键词:火电行业,上市公司,投资价值,成本领先
THE RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT
VALUE OF LISTED THERMAL POWER
COMPANIES IN CHINA

ABSTRACT

China's thermal power industry is currently in a period of change.
Supply and demand gap slowdown, expansion rate slowed, ing
electricity price auction and upstream pressure are the main features of
this period. In 2008, coal prices soared in the first half, the electricity
price was upgraded twice and the rising interest rates increased the
financial costs of enterprises. In thermal power industry, some enterprises
have obtained a profit rate over 20%, while panies appeared
huge losses. What kind petitive factors brought them to such a
big difference and how these factors affect the investment value of these
panies? That is a core issue to be resolved.
First, the paper uses Michael Porter's Five Forces Model to analyze
China's thermal power industry. petitive analysis concludes that
supplier capabilities and the industry's petition are the industry's
petitive factors, both of which focus on the cost control of
thermal panies.
Then, this article analyzes pany's cost, the breakdown and
driving factors of the cost. A model is build to use these indicators to
forecast the cost of sales ratio of a thermal pany. It is found
that the average yearly coal price, pany’s average