文档介绍：ACCELERATING INNOVATION IN ENERGY
Energy is Key . . . Now
October 22, 2001
This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the anization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company. This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral presentation; it is not plete record of the discussion.
txho/11022 ho0402
TODAY’S DISCUSSION
Capital markets: ruthless driver of innovation
Creative destruction in the Energy Industry
What can Houston do to lead innovation in Energy?
1
txho/11022 ho0402
LONG-TERM SURVIVAL IS DIFFICULT, AND GETTING MORE SO
Note: Number of exits averaged over twenty year period
Source: McKinsey analysis
1935
1955
1975
1995
2005E
The S&P 500 is a brutal, unemotional yardstick of performance
The pace of change is accelerating
Implied lifetime in S&P 500 based pany exits in years
2
txho/11022 ho0402
MARKETS WIN IN THE LONG TERM
Overall performance of S&P 500 would have been
… if it were made up of panies on the list in 1957
about 20% less per year…
3
txho/11022 ho0402
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN ANALYZED USING THE McKINSEY LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE DATABASE (PDB)PDB overview
Energy sectors
Financial data (60 items) for 1,panies in 16 industries for the period 1962-2000*
Industry
Number panies
Airlines
23
Commodity Chemicals
36
Specialty Chemicals
47
Defense
28
Medical Supplies
66
Software
171
Paper
47
Pharmaceuticals
101
Soap
24
Transportation
25
Semiconductors
55
Utilities
104
Oil
170
munications
55
Industries
Interesting dynamics to analyze
More than 10 players with 50% of sales in the relevant SIC category
Companies
.-based
Belonged to a predetermined SIC code
Obtained at least 50% of their sales from specified SIC code (“pure-play”)
Had a market cap within the top 80% of all market cap values
Companies that IPOed in last 4 years met both mar