文档介绍：基于模糊决策的电力变压器风险评估方法*
王有元1,周婧婧1,陈伟根1,杜林1,宋伟光2
(1 重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室重庆 400044;2 绍兴电力局绍兴 312000)
摘要:针对传统风险评估方法存在评价指标等同对待、当风险优先级(RPN)相等时无法进行评估、评估结果准确性低等不足,提出了基于模糊多准则决策的电力变压器风险评估方法,并成功应用于电力变压器故障模式的风险评估。该方法在对电力变压器进行故障模式及影响分析(FMEA)的基础上,选择发生度、严重度和可检测度作为电力变压器的风险评价指标;采用三角模糊数对3项风险评价指标分别进行模糊化处理,运用熵重法确定各评价指标的权重以表现其相对重要度;通过使用模糊多准则决策理论对故障模式进行排序最终得到风险评估结果。评估实例表明,该方法不仅有效地克服了传统评估方法无法实现评价指标的区别对待和当风险优先级(RPN)相等时无法进行评估这两大不足,而且能有效提高评估结果的准确性。
关键词:电力变压器;模糊多准则决策;风险评估;FMEA;三角模糊数;熵重法
中图分类号:TM411 文献标识码:A 国家标准学科分类代码:
Risk assessment method of power transformer based on fuzzy decision-making
Wang Youyuan1, Zhou Jingjing1, Chen Weigen1, Du Lin1, Song Weiguang2
(1 State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology,
Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China; 2 Shaoxing Electric Power Bureau, Shaoxing 312000, China)
Abstract:To solve the problems pertaining to traditional risk assessment methods such as non-differential analysis of evaluation indexes, impossibility of risk evaluation with equal risk priority numbers (RPN) and low accuracy of evaluation results, this paper proposes a risk assessment method based on fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making, which has been essfully employed to evaluate the risk of power transformers. On the basis of the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) of power transformer, the occurrence, severity and detectabi