文档介绍：论文题目: 房地产市场预警体系研究
作者姓名胡瑾卿
指导教师邢以群
专业企业管理
所在学院管理学院
学号 20220109
提交日期
中文摘要
房地产市场状态的变化具有明显的周期波动性,其剧烈波动与过冷过热,都会对国民经济带来不利的影响。
本文基于这种状况,在房地产周期波动理论与经济预警方法的基础上,结合警兆信号法的警度判断功能与景气调查法的趋势预测功能,构建了两维度房地产市场预警模型,通过该二维模型模拟了房地产景气循环,以判断市场警度并预测其发展趋势;同时,作者进一步制定了不同市场阶段对应的预警准则,通过警源列表与对策库找出警源并提出相应对策措施,从而有助于完善对策建议机制,以达到缓解房地产周期波动,引导房地产业健康发展的目的。
本文以杭州为对象进行实证研究,经过二维预警分析,得到杭州房地产市场已有过热迹象,市场信心有所下降,但仍处于市场上升阶段;且从市场轨迹来看,泡沫将进一步膨胀的结论。
针对目前杭州所处的景气循环阶段与导致市场过热的警源,作者提出在降温的总体原则下,政府可采取资金上开源节流,规范商品房开发;调整供给结构,打通交通瓶颈,确保有效供给;建设经济适用房直接干预房价;限制市场投机行为;完善房地产数据采集系统等对策措施。
关键词: 杭州房地产预警二维
Abstract
The real estate market is of obvious periodicity,but acute cycle fluctuations,Super-cooling and overheating of real estate market will do harm to our economy.
Based on the Real Estate Cycle Theory and the economic Early-Warning technique,this thesis built the two-dimensional Real Estate Early-Warning System with both measure function of the Indicator Signal Method and forecast function of Business Cycle Survey,simulated the real estate cycle with this model,in order to measure alarm degree and forecast market trend. Further more,author established early-warning principles aim to different cycle phases,found the reasons and bring forward corresponding countermeasures via the reason list and countermeasure library,help to consummate the policy countermeasure mechanism,so as to relax the cycle fluctuations,lead real estate market developing healthily.
On the basis of the empirical analysis of HangZhou with the two-dimensional early warning model,this thesis draws the conclusion that HangZhou real estate market is of something overheating,people’s confidence dropped as well,but the price is still rising. And bubbles will keep expanding according to historical market trend.
For the real estate cycle phase of HangZhou and the reasons lead to overheating,author suggests that upon the principle of discouragement,government should tap new sources of financing and husband existing resources,standardize real