文档介绍：Report | Macro Analysis
Chinese Patients- Macroeconomic perspective of
Special Report
China local government debt
18 September 2011 Research on Government Debt-Serial IV
Key Data
% 10 11E
GDP Laboratory orders: Chinese local government debt mystery. Because of
CPI different reference time and different statistical criteria, it is normal that the central bank,
PPI the Banking Bureau and the mission and other different departments give
Retail Sales different statistics. We believe that the size of local government debt should be based on
Industrial Added trillion published by the "national audit of local government debt," the
Value National Audit Office.
Export
Import Diseases: the key issue of local government debt is the excessive debt and
FAI excessive spending. The central government launched RMB4 trillion stimulus in 2008,
M2 but only needs local government to provide trillion. The audit results show that
RMB Loans the local government debt has increased of RMB5 trillion since 2008, even more than
1 yr Deposit Rate the total stimulus scale. Over-indebtedness of local government implies the
1 yr Lending Rate over-spending and over-investment impulse.
RMB Exchange
Rate Pathogens: there are five fundamental reasons to the problem of Chinese local
Latest Data(August) government debt: the soft budget constraints, common pool problems, the impulse to
Industrial Added rush development, RMB4 trillion stimulus and relax global ary conditions.
Vale
Urban Investment Prognosis: the future of Chinese local government debt issues will develop
Retail Sales following two evolutionary paths. 1. Like 90 years, the government debt was out of
CPI control and evolved to a financial crisis; 2. Like the situation after 2004, governme