文档介绍：August 15, 2006 Asia Pacific: Metals & Mining
August 15, 2006
Asia Pacific: Metals & Mining

Asian Coal: China holds the key on back of lower Indonesian supply
Key stance
China Shenhua Energy (, HK$, Neutral)
We believe the risk/reward for the Asian and Chinese thermal coal market is still on
Key data Current
the downside. China is entering a volume rampup cycle—after a period of heavy Price (HK$)
Price target (HK$)
capex on greenfield and transportation infrastructure—potentially increasing Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 263, / 33,
Foreign ownership (%) --
domestic and regional supply in 2H2006 and through 2007. The recent sharp rise in
marginal cost for Indonesian producers is incrementally positive, in our view, but 12/05 12/06E 12/07E 12/08E
EPS (HK$) New
not enough to slow rising export prices. We prefer China Shenhua among the listed EPS revision (%)
EPS growth (%)
coal stocks we cover given its pany-specific drivers. EPS (dil) (Rmb) New
P/E (X)
P/B (X)
EV/EBITDA (X)
Regional market improving marginally, China holds key to future Dividend yield (%)
ROE (%)
The sharp rebound in regional spot prices since late 2005 has largely been driven by

stronger Indian and Chinese imports, and a reduction in Chinese exports. Our
recent Indonesian visit highlighted potentially better Indonesian supply discipline Yanzhou Coal Mining (, HK$, Neutral)
Key data Current
underpinned by a rapid rise in producers’ marginal costs. Going forward, we Price (HK$)
Price target (HK$)
believe China’ trade flow holds the key to the regional market’s outlook. Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 28, / 3,
Foreign ownership (%) --
China: Volume rampup cycle points to downside risk 12/05 12/06E 12/07E 12/08E
EPS (HK$