文档介绍：
自然灾害应急物流的动态过程仿真建模#
郑冬1,2,赵晗萍1,2**
(1. 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875;
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2. 北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,北京 100875)
摘要:自然灾害的发生往往会造成交通系统的破坏,而由于交通系统承担应急物流与转移疏
散的职能,因此交通不便会造成应急响应效率降低与人员经济的巨大损失。本文通过离散系
统仿真技术建立自然灾害后交通系统运行模型,利用 Monte-Carlo 仿真原理和 Multi-agent
仿真技术建立因自然灾害受阻的交通系统中道路抢修、人员转移疏散、应急物资调度等应急
物流过程仿真模型,为灾后应急响应过程提供决策支持。
关键词:自然灾害;应急物流;动态过程仿真
中图分类号:N945
The Dynamic Process Simulation Model of Emergency
Logistics in Natural Disaster
ZHENG Dong1,2, ZHAO Hanping1,2
(1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing 100875;
2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University,
Beijing 100875)
Abstract: The natural disaster will destroy the transportation system frequently, when the
transportation system takes the important role of transporting the emergency supplies to disaster
area and evacuating people from disaster area. If the traffic system is paralyzed, it will cause a loss
of efficiency of emergency response and great loss of economy. This paper sets up a traffic system
operation model in natural disaster according to the discrete system simulation technology. Based
on the result of transportation model which shows the connection of segment in the road, the
Monte Carlo simulation-principle and Multi-agent simulation technology are used to establish the
dynamic process simulation model of emergency logistic in the condition of traffic system being
damaged by natural disaster. The emergency logistic includes repairing the road of traffic system,
evacuating people, and scheduling emergency supplies. This model will provide decision support
for the process of emergency response after disaster.
Key words: Natural disaster; Emergency logistics; Dynamic process simulation
0 引言
近年来,自然灾害爆发的频率和规模都明显大于往常,并随着我国经济的快速发展,灾
害往往会对我国社会整体生产生活造成巨大冲击。2008 年初发生低温雨雪冰冻灾害导致直
接经济损失亿元;而汶川地震造成的直接经济损失达 8451 亿元人民币[1]。在这
两次灾害的应急响应过程中,交通与应急响应的问题突现出