文档介绍：Prospects for the Global Economy
in 2004: Managing in Uncertainty
KCCI INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS COUNCIL
Dominic Barton, McKinsey & Company
November 19, 2003
OVERVIEW
1. There will be increasing volatility in the global financial system and more financial
crises over the next 5 years
2. Many executives are wrestling with the toughest environment they have ever
encountered
3. A global recovery, though still fragile, is now underway. Developing countries will grow
faster than rich countries
4. A number of risk factors need to be monitored
• Longer-term structural problems persisting in rich countries (., US consumer debt
levels)
• Macro policy has largely run its course; may be insufficient to meet new challenges
• Rising trade protectionism
• Increase in violent conflict
• Potential for additional new shocks (., SARS, energy crunch, investor confidence)
5. Executives in both the private and public sectors can do much more to foresee major
risks, prepare for them, and in fact thrive in crises and volatile times. Winning
companies will pursue 3 core action sets simultaneously:
• Ensuring “the basics” are in place
• Preparing for the unexpected
• Pursuing a portfolio of strategic initiatives
1
INCREASING VOLATILITY AND INCIDENCE OF CRISES –
1
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS IN TRANSITION
1990 Global forces at work 2020?
• High barriers to
interaction
Liberalization
• Fragmented,
local market and
Mobility of capital
industry Old Fully
structures economy integrated
• Relatively Digital world global
self-contained economy
national
Common standards
economies
• Relatively self-
contained
social/political • More decision makers – billions of
tension individual decisions by consumers,
laborers, producers, and investors
• Faster transaction/response times
(., technology, media)
• More interconnected/linked world
(., interest rates, stock indices)
2
THE FINAN