文档介绍：High Yield Research Deutsche Bank@
January 25, 2005 High Yield Media
2005 Outlook – Steady Credits, Tighter Spreads
• As the economic recovery progresses, credit fundamentals in the media
Global Markets Research Table of Contents sector continue to improve gradually. For full-year 2005, we expect
overall . advertising spending to grow %, a slower rate than
Introduction ................... 3 2004’s % increase. Based on our analysis of the media space, we offer
Estimates ...................... 4 the following sector weightings:
Top mendations .. 6
-- Radio Broadcasting ---Overweight
2005 Outlook............... 11
-- TV Broadcasting --- Marketweight
Sector Overviews. ...... 13
ps & -- Outdoor Advertising --- Underweight
-- Motion Picture Theaters --- Marketweight
mendations....... 25
-- Publishing/Printing/Business Services --- Underweight
Company Updates ....... 37
-- Entertainment -- Marketweight
Financial Summaries... 53
Relative Value ........... 101 • The potential risks for investors in media, in our view, focus on 1) the
rate of economic growth, 2) potential changes in balance sheets, 3)
technology shifts, and 4) the regulatory environment. Furthermore,
while we understand investors are reluctant to “chase” yield, we do believe
several potential total return opportunities exist among media credits,
primarily:
-- Granite Broadcasting
-- Houghton Mifflin
-- munications
-- Vertis, Inc.
-- Warner Music Group
Andrew W. Van Houten
(212) 250-2777
@
Aaron L. Watts
(212) 250-2592
@
Eric T. Lee
(212) 250-3990
@
IMPORTANT: PLEASE SEE CONFLICT DISCLOSURES AND
ANALYST CERTIFICATION IMMEDIATELY AT THE END OF
THE TEXT OF THIS REPORT. DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES
INC. DOES AND SEEKS TO DO BUSINESS WITH ISSUERS
COVERED IN ITS REPORTS. AS A RESULT INVESTORS
SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE FIRM MA