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中国软科学 2010年第 4期
中国经济持续增长的原因研究:
技术进步路径的视角
魏枫,樊士德
(黑龙江大学生产力研究中心,黑龙江哈尔滨 150080;南京审计学院经济学院,江苏南京 210029)
摘要:在总结中国经济增长的典型化事实的基础上,给出中国经济能够顺利实现赶超的理论证明及实现条件,
认为技术进步路径将会大致依次经历如下三个阶段:模仿阶段、由模仿向创新过渡阶段和创新阶段。模型中的
转移动态分析表明,当某些条件不能得到满足时,动力系统的稳态点就会使得技术进步路径收敛到模仿阶段,国
家也因此会陷于经济停滞的模仿陷阱状态。政府可以通过扭曲本国生产要素价格和本币贬值,提高企业获利能
力,这对于陷于模仿陷阱的国家摆脱经济停滞状态极为有效,亦能够加快赶超国家的增长速度。如果中国由模
仿到创新的过渡阶段业已来临,那么对外模仿、吸引外资对于经济增长的促进作用将会出现下降,而自主研发对
于经济增长的贡献会显著上升。要保持经济长期稳定地增长,政府就应逐渐减低对经济的扭曲,将生产资源的
定价权逐步交还给市场。
关键词:模仿;创新;技术进步路径;中国经济增长
中图分类号: F061. 2; F120. 3 文献标识码: A 文章编号: 1002 - 9753 (2010) 04 - 0050 - 12
Ana lysis on the Cause of Susta ined Growth of Ch inese Econom y:
the Perspective of the Pa th of Technolog ica l Progress
W E I Feng, FENG Shi - De
(Center of Productivity S tudy, Heilongjiang U niversity, Harbin 150080, China;
School of Econom ic, N anjing Audit U niversity, N anjing 210029, China)
Abstract:Based on the typ ical facts that sum up China s econom ic growth, we confirm that China s economy is able to
catch up essfully and technological advances will be roughly on the path through the following three stages: im itation
stage, from im itation to innovation transitional period and the innovation stage. The dynam ic analysis in this model
shows that when certain conditions are notmet, the steady - state point of the power system would be converged to im ita
tion stage, so the country be therefore caught in the trap state of econom ic stagnation. If the government can distort do
mestic p rices of p roduction factors and devaluate native currency to imp rove corporate s p rofitability, it is extremely ef
fective that for the countries caught in the trap out of econom ic stagnation, and to accelerate the growth rate of the catch
- up country. If the advent of the transitional phase from im itation to innovation of China ing, the p romoting role
to econom ic growth of im itation and FD Iwill be decreased, while the contribution of R & D for