文档介绍：Insurance abc
China
Global Research
We expect low interest rates to depress
Chinese insurance investments and we cut our forecasts
Adopting an event-driven approach accordingly
Remain OW(V) on Ping An, CIIH, and
China Pacific, N(V) on and China
Life; downgrade Ming An to N(V)
mend an event-driven approach,
as market volatility provides trading
opportunity
Year 2008 was a pain to the Chinese insurers. As if the stock
market crash wasn’t destructive enough, they went through
four deposit rate cuts totalling about 200bp in the last quarter
amid an economic downturn. We have cut our forecasts to
reflect the slowing growth and investment strain.
The crisis is forcing the industry to go back to the basics –
making money from pricing risks and controlling costs
rather than equity gains. We petition to ease and
underwriting to improve on tougher CIRC supervision.
We roll over our valuations to 2009e and downgrade Ming
An to N(V). Our ratings remain unchanged for the rest.
As we believe the market reacts more to news than to
22 January 2009 fundamentals, we mend an event-driven strategy.
Patricia Cheng* Results announcements, acquisitions, accounting changes,
Analyst and fund-raising are likely to provide trading opportunities.
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HK)
+852 2996 6584 ******@.hk We highlight in the report events that are unique to the
John Russell* insurance industry and to our coverage. Longer term, we are
Analyst positive about China’s insurance industry. But we believe
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HK) investors could make use of market volatility to make money
+852 2822 4321 john.******@.hk
in both directions.
Valuation summary
View HSBC Global Research at: Stock Ticker CUR __Target price __ Price ___Rating ___
*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New Old 21 JanNew Old
and i