虚拟价值链下我国国内旅游服务贸易与经济增长关系研究.pdf

文档介绍：88 吴忠才:虚拟价值链下我国国内旅游服务贸易与经济增长关系研究
虚拟价值链下我国国内旅游
服务贸易与经济增长关系研究
吴忠才
(湖南理工学院经济与管理学院湖南岳阳 414006)
摘要:文章从虚拟价值链角度,基于协整理论以实证研究方法,认为我国国内旅游服务贸易与
经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,并构建了一个协整模型,当国内旅游服务贸易增加1%,能拉
%,国内生产总值增长1%,%。Granger因
果检验表明两变量之间存在双向因果关系。最后通过误差修正模型反映了变量之间的短期波动与长期
均衡关系。
关键词:虚拟价值链;国内旅游服务贸易;经济增长
中图分类号: 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1674-1722 (2010) 01-0088-07
The Contribution of Domestic Tourism
Service Trade to Economic Growth in China
WU Zhong-cai
(School of Economics and Management, Hunan Institute of Science and Technology,
Hunan Yueyang 414006,China)
Abstract: In this paper, based on the virtual value chain perspective and cointegration theory, according to
empirical study, this paper indicates that there is a long-term stability cointegration relation between domestic
tourism service trade and economic growth. Through the cointegration model, the result shows that with 1%
increasing of domestic tourism service trade, GDP will increase %, and 1% increasing of GDP, domestic
tourism service trade will increase %. The granger causality presents that there are bi-causalities between
LGDP and LDR. The ECM(Error Correction Model)explains the short-term undulation and long-term
equilibrium among the variables finally.
Key words: virtual value chain,domestic tourism service trade, economic growth
收稿日期:2010-02-23
作者