文档介绍：Energy and minerals overview
Robert New and a Petchey
• Weak economic performance will reduce world demand for mineral resources and result in
a slowdown in production growth in the short term.
• Medium-term demand growth is projected to remain strong, underpinned by strong rates
of economic growth in developing Asia.
• World prices for energy and modities are expected to recover after 2010 in line
with a broader economic recovery.
• Australian export earnings from energy and minerals are forecast to decline markedly in
2009-10, but are projected to improve over the medium term, driven by recovering world
prices and demand.
World price outlook
The short-term outlook for energy and minerals prices is forecast to be weak. Weaker demand,
as a result of sharply slowing industrial production, particularly in developing Asia, has placed
significant downward pressure on world prices. Over the medium term (to 2014), world prices
for mineral resources are projected to recover in line with the assumed world economic
recovery, and an improvement modity demand.
As a result of weak demand, there have been reports of a marked build up of stocks for many
energy and modities. Consumers have been able to draw on stocks, which
is contributing to falling production for a
number modities, particularly iron ore
and thermal coal. In the short term, growth
Base metal prices in production for modities will be
historical cycles relatively limited because of high levels of
1200 consumer stocks.
1000 The current downturn modity markets
800 must be viewed in an historical business
cycle context. A marked increase in new
600 production capacity in response to the sharp
rise in prices between 2004 and early 2008 is
400
now, bination with weaker demand,
200 contributing to significant downward pressure
on prices. As part of the business cycle, it will
index 1970=100
be reasonable to expect that a strength