文档介绍：Economic Research
January 7, 2011
Special report Contents
Pressure points for policymakers 2
Strong global growth ahead: Key themes for the year ahead 2
Theme 1: US joins EM Asia and
Eleven themes for 2011 Latin America in growth triumvirate 3
Theme 2: The service es to life 4
Theme 3: Europe's budget deficit falls to
The global economy is poised to take a major step forward in 2011. With recent half that of the US 5
revisions, our forecast for global GDP growth now stands at % on a 4Q/4Q basis Theme 4: Pressures build for long-term
(% using PPP weights). Although the projected gain is not that much stronger lending subsidies in EMU 6
than the rise recorded over the past year, it represents a significant improvement Theme 5: US private sector job gains
average 200,000 per month 7
from the pace of the past few quarters. More important, the expansion will evolve Theme 6: US consumers spend and delever 8
in a way that will boost confidence in its durability. Two factors that will contribute Theme 7: EM consumption rises to 37%
to this shift in perception are the emergence of the US economy as a growth of global total 9
leader—underscored by vigorous private sector job growth averaging 200,000 per Theme 8: G-3 core inflation stabilizes
month—and a resurgent global service sector. At the same time, the expansion will below 1%; Fed stays on hold 10
be seen as thriving in the absence of temporary supports from fiscal stimulus and Theme 9: Inflation threat builds in EM Asia
the inventory cycle, which propelled the recovery during its initial phase. and Latin America 11
Theme 10: China tolerates higher inflation,
other EM follow in its wake 12
The fundamental factors driving the expansion largely will be the same ones that Theme 11: Capital flows to the EM simmer down 13
lifted the global economy out of recession over the past 18 months. Global economic outlook summary 14
Central Bank Watch 15
• Most important is the shift in private