文档介绍：摘要
我国从 1999 年就开始发展包括分红保险在内的投资性质的保险业务,虽然分
红保险在我国面世的时间不长,但是已经成为目前保险市场上的热销产品,占到
寿险公司近一半的比重。近年来,各寿险公司纷纷推出各自的“主打”产品,抢占
这一极具发展前景的新兴市场。目前我国市场上的分红型产品主要有中国人寿的
“国寿千禧理财两全保险”,新华人寿的“吉庆有余”分红保险、平安保险的“平安鸿
利终身险”,中法合资金盛人寿的“盛世佳人”、“盛世骄子”和“盛世顺心”分红保险
等,美国友邦、中宏人寿等也在我国几大城市推出自己的分红型保险产品。但由
于我国人们对分红保险的功能存在着理解上的偏差:对分红险的保险保障寄予太
高的希望,同时对分红险的红利也存在着太高的期望,从而在分红险面世至今,
其退保也成为最困扰保险公司的问题。
本文以我国最大的寿险公司的数据为背景,对分红保险中的失效率建立回归
模型,分析保额、性别、年龄、交费方式等若干因素对失效率的影响,从而建立
失效率的测算公式,希望使经验制定失效率向模型预测失效率转变,从而达到能
利用模型预测失效率,使公司降低成本的目的。并在学****国外的新型产品:“无失
效率”保证保单(The Policy of No-Lapse Guarantee) 的设计理念的基础上,结合
我国的实际情况,讨论了开设出“无失效率”保证分红保险产品的可能性。
本文除了在定量的基础上分析了影响分红险失效率的原因,还从管理方面对
分红险高失效率的原因进行了分析,并提出了一定的建议,以期唤起其应对策略
的探讨。
关键词:分红保险;失效率;回归模型;现金价值
I
Abstract
Our country has begun to develop insurance business with the character of
investment including participating policy since 1999. Although it has not a long history
of development in China, the participating policy has e a popular product in
insurance market, whose sales value has accounted for almost 50% of total sales value
of various products. In the recent years, every pany promotes its own leading
product of such kind to secure the more shares in this booming market. Presently, the
main products of participating policy in Chinese market include “the GuoshouQianXi
endowment Insurance” of CHINA LIFE PANY LIMITED, “the
Jiqinyouyu” of New China Life Insurance, the Ping An of China’s“the whole life
insurance of Pin An Hong Li ”,the AXA-Minmetals Assurance’s“Sheng Shi
JiaRen”、“ShengShiJiaoZi” And “ShengShiShunXin” participating policy, etc., The
American International Assurance(AIA)、the Manulife-Sinochem Life Insurance also
provide their own products of participating policy in the major cities of China. However,
due to prehension of the function of the participating, many people usually pay
unrealistic expectation on the guarantee and profit return of the product, the withdrawal
of the insurance has been ing the most puzzled