文档介绍：河北省城乡固定资产投资增长影响
GDP增长的实证分析
河北经贸大学刘金凤、梁艳、刘文慧
摘要
改革开放以来,河北省经济建设取得了巨大的成就,是全国经济增长较快的省份之一,其国民经济正处于一个新的扩张时期。固定资产投资是社会扩大再生产的有效途径,固定资产投资的增长会带动经济增长。河北省固定资产投资在经济增长中发挥了重要的作用,但也存在一些问题,因此,有必要就河北省固定资产投资增长对GDP增长的影响做深入的研究。
本文将基于VAR模型分析河北省城乡固定资产投资增长对经济增长的影响和作用,由协整分析得出河北省城乡固定资产投资与GDP存在着长期稳定的均衡关系, GDP增长与城镇固定资产投资增长和农村固定资产投资增长的变化趋势有很强的一致性。由VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解的结果可以看出,城镇固定资产投资增长和农村固定资产投资增长在长期内对GDP增长有不同程度的影响与贡献。,,,。无论是城镇固定资产投资还是农村固定资产投资,对GDP的弹性系数都偏低,说明河北省城乡固定资产投资增长对GDP增长的影响较小。农村固定资产投资滞后一期值尤其偏低,说明农村固定资产投资增长对GDP增长的影响不显著。同时,VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分析的结果也说明河北省GDP的增长主要是受其前期值的影响,虽然城乡固定资产投资的增长也对GDP的增长有一定的作用,但都不是很显著。最后,在实证分析的基础上,结合已有理论研究成果,提出优化固定资产投资的政策建议,从而在经济持续稳定增长的背景下,确定河北省固定资产投资方向、策略。
关键词:固定资产投资;GDP增长;VAR模型
Abstract
The economy of Hebei province has made significant achievements since the reform and opening-up, and has been one of the fastest growing economies in national economy. Also the economy is in the period of expansion. Fixed assets investment has played an important role in propelling regional economic growth; however, there are still some problems in investment of Hebei province. Therefore, it needs to make a deep study on the effects caused by fixed assets investments in Hebei province.
This paper analyzes the effect of fixed assets investments in Hebei province by urban area and rural area on the economic growth based on VAR Model. Co-integrate analysis indicates that there is a long term balance between fixed assets investment and economic growth, and the growth speed of GDP is strongly consistent with the speed of fixed assets investments in the urban area and rural area of Hebei province. According to the results of the analysis of the impulse response function and variance position, we can notice that urban and rural fixed assets investment growth are all have different extent of affection and contribution to the GDP growth. The elasticity of urban fixed asset investment to GD