文档介绍：宏观经济
Report | Macro Analysis
Regular Report Euro-zone on Brink of Recession
rd
20 Aug 2012 An Update on Euro-Zone Debt Crisis Development(3 Week Aug)
Key Data
USA The European market was relatively stable this week, two factors for the moderate
% 11 12E increase: 1. The 2Q GDP of euro zone and the core countries were better than
GDP expected.; 2. Back from holidays, Merkel said that Germany government supports
CPI ECB’s bong buying program, conditional on the fiscal reform.
Unemployment
Trade
- - Euro zone 2Q GDP was down by % QoQ, down % YoY. This was in line
balance/GDP
Fiscal with expectations. Germany and France economy grew by % YoY and 0% YoY
- -
balance/GDP respectively, which were all better than expectations. However, due to the
Policy rate continued fiscal austerity, coupled with the sharp contraction of euro zone
Dollar Index manufacturing activities, we expect that the euro zone economy will continue to
Eurozone fall in 3Q. The manufacturing sector will e a major drag on the economic
% 11 12E growth ing quarters.
GDP -
CPI
Unemployment The last two weeks, Spanish and Italian government bond yields decreased, the
Trade euro-zone countries’ CDS also decreased significantly, which showed that the ECB
- -
balance/GDP and European leaders’"verbal intervention" has played a positive role in
Fiscal
- - stabilizing the market sentiment. However, as European leaders returned from
balance/GDP vacation, the market is expected to be more sensitive to practical progress.
Policy rate 1 1
Euro/USD
It was still difficult to solve Greek problem. Greek Prime Minister Samaras will
visit Germany and France this week, aimed to persuade the two countries leaders
Source: Bloomberg, China Merchants to delay the Greek austerity target. According to the two