文档介绍：南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文
摘要
能源是重要的生产要素。我国正处于经济高速发展时期,对能源的需求非常
大但自身供给能力有限。节约能源是缓解能源约束,减轻环境压力,保障经济安
全,实现可持续发展的必然选择。我国幅员辽阔,各地区能源的使用状况千差万
别,节能效果的区域差异性非常明显。
本文根据各地区的特点,以节能效果的区域差异性为研究对象,通过建立区
域节能效果评价指标体系,运用多种不确定性系统研究的方法,对我国区域的节
能效果进行了综合评价。详细地介绍了相关的研究背景,在充分借鉴学者们已有
研究成果的基础上,运用派生德尔菲等方法建立了评价指标体系。通过专家调查
确定了各指标的权重,采用改进的三角白化权函数进行评估,通过灰色定权聚类
将我国 30 个省份划分为四大类。运用基于已定权重的综合属性对各类省份进行
了动态多尺度评价,对影响单位 GDP 能耗的各要素进行了灰色关联分析,得出了
它们的关联程度和影响力的大小。
运用灰色 GM(1,1)模型对未来五年的节能效果进行了科学预测,定性和定量
相结合地分析了各类省份节能效果的具体情况,并有针对性地提出了未来进一步
的努力方向。最后,站在全国的高度,指明了促进区域节能效果提高的对策和建
议。
关键词:节能效果,区域分类,综合评价,不确定性,白化权函数,灰色聚类,
GM(1,1)
i
基于不确定性的我国节能效果评价研究
Abstract
The energy is very important as a production factor. Our country is in the period
of high-speed economic development, the demand for energy is very great, but our
own supply is limited. Saving energy is the inevitable choice to alleviate the energy
restriction, lighten the environmental pressure, ensure the economic security and
realize the sustainable development. Our country is vast in territory, the condition of
the energy using is quite different in different areas, and the regional difference of
energy-saving effects is very obvious.
According to regional different characteristic, the paper has chosen the regional
difference of energy-saving effects as the research object and used many methods
about systems science of uncertainty prehensively evaluate China’s regional
energy-saving effect through setting up the evaluation index system of regional
energy-saving effect. Having introduced relevant research backgrounds in detail, we
use the method of Derivable Delphi to establish the evaluation index system on the
basis of the scholars’ research results. The paper has confirmed the weight of every
index in the method of investigating experts and then evaluated the weights by
reformative triangular whitenization weight function. We use Grey-Clustering
Analysis to divide 30 provinces in ou