文档介绍：摘要
改革开放30年来,浙江省不断改善投资环境,积极开展招商引资。正确认识并评价外商直接投资对浙江出口贸易的影响作用,对于促进浙江经济可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。外商直接投资的变动与浙江出口贸易的关系究竟是怎样?是改善出口贸易,还是阻碍出口贸易,二者有怎样的因果关系?为了回答这些问题,本文采用浙江1997年-2010年的样本数据,首先就外商直接投资数额变动对浙江外贸出口的影响作了初步描述统计分析,然后运用现代的协整检验方法作进一步深入的定量分析,通过单位根检验、协整分析,得出外商直接投资的变动与浙江的出口总额有长期的稳定的均衡关系,接着运用格兰杰检验方法发现外商直接投资的变动与浙江出口贸易之间有显著的单向因果关系。在前面分析的基础上,最后有针对性地提出关于如何更好地通过出口贸易促进浙江经济增长的若干政策建议。
关键词:FDI,出口贸易,协整分析,格兰杰因果检验
ABSTRACT
During the 30 years of reform and opening up,Zhejiang constantly improve the invest environment,actively attract investment. Correctly understand and evaluate the effect of export trade of foreign direct investment of zhejiang province, which have a significance to promote the sustainable development of zhejiang. What’s the relationship between foreign direct investment and export trades of zhejiang province? Improve the export trade,or stop export trade,what’s the relationship between the two?
To answer these questions,this article adopts sample data of zhejiang from 1997 to 2010,firstly makes a preliminary describe statistical analysis of the influence of foreign direct investment amount change on zhejiang export,and then uses the modern cointegration test method for the quantitative analysis,after that takes unit root test,cointegration analysis,obtains the foreign direct investment change and zhejiang exports of a long-term stable equilibrium,then uses the granger inspection method which finds that there is one-way significant causal relationship between direct foreign investment change and zhejiang export trade. Based on the analysis of what mentioned before,finally pertinently some policy suggestions on how to play to promote economic growth of foreign trade in zhejiang better.
Key words: FDI,Exports total,Cointegration test,Granger causality test
目录
摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
引言 1
一、浙江吸引FDI的贸易效应的描述性统计分析 2
(一)浙江利用FDI的基本情况 2
(二)浙江出口贸易发展的基本情况 3
(三)浙江吸引FDI与出口贸易变动的关系 5
二、浙江吸引FDI贸易效应的计量分析 6
(一)变量选取及数据处理 6
(二)单位根检验 6
(三)协整检验 8
(四)格兰杰因果关系检验 9
三、结论及政策建议 11
参考文献 14
致谢