文档介绍：三峡库区湖北宜昌段细菌性痢疾发病风险的GM(1,1)模型预测分析
杨小兵1、鲁亮2、郭玉红2、赵鑫1、贺圆圆1、张皓1、蒋静1
1、湖北省宜昌市疾病预防控制中心;2、中国疾病预防控制中心
摘要:[目的] 预测三峡库区湖北宜昌段细菌性痢疾发病趋势,为制定针对性的预防控制措施提供依据。 [方法] 根据三峡库区湖北宜昌段1997~2010年细菌性痢疾发病率,建立GM(1,1)模型,进行中长期预测研究。[结果] 预测模型精度检验C=,P=,外推预测理想。预测结果显示,2011~,,。[结论] 预测表明2011~2013年三峡库区宜昌段细菌性痢疾年发病率呈下降趋势,但仍需进一步加强疾病监测、健康教育等综合性防治措施来控制细菌性痢疾的发病风险。
关键词:三峡库区;细菌性痢疾;GM(1,1)模型;预测分析
Abstract: [Objective] To predict incidence trend of bacillary dysentery in Three Gorges reservoir area in Yichang , and make pertinent measures for prevention. [Methods] The grey dynamic model was established with the incidence rates of bacillary dysentery in Yichang from 1997 to 2010. We use the model predict the trend of dysentery for the year of 2011-2014. [Results] The model predicted that the incidence rates of bacillary dysentery would be , , per 100000 person-years respectively for the year of 2011-2013. [Conclusion] The model suggested the downward trend of the disease incidence. Comprehensive measures should be taken to control the risk of dysentery disease transmission in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.
Key Words : Three Gorges Area; Bacillary Dysentery; GM(1,1)model; Predictive parsing
三峡工程是当今世界上最大的水利枢纽工程,举世瞩目。然而,大型水利工程的兴建,不仅造成自然生态环境的巨大变化,而且会引发某些疾病的暴发或流行。本研究根据三峡库区宜昌段1997~2010年的细菌性痢疾发病资料,利用灰色系统预测模型,对三峡库区宜昌段细菌性痢疾发病率进行分析预测,以了解三峡库区宜昌段细菌性痢疾
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