文档介绍：Chapter 15
Real Business Cycle Theory
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summary
Some facts in business-cycle
Real-business-cycle theory’s explanation to some important economic variables
Explanation to the fluctuations of output, consumption & investment
Explanations to employment fluctuation
Explanations to ary fluctuation
Evaluation to Real-business-cycle theory
Some Facts in Business-Cycle
Fountainhead of Real-business-cycle theory
In 1980’s,many papers give explanations to economic fluctuations by real impacts instead of ary impacts.
Representative economists: , , , , & .
Kiddland-Prose’s paper《 Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations》 in 1982 begin to form the model.
Some Facts in Business-Cycle
Characters of Real-business-cycle theory:
New developments of new classical economics, inherited most of the micro assumption.(1)use equilibrium method to construct macroeconomic model;(2)adapt the hypothesis of “rational anticipation”.
Different from traditional classical theory, attach much importance to supply instead of ary fluctuation. The theory argues that real impacts (for example technology evolution, policy change and natural disaster) are the origin of economic fluctuation.
Some Facts in Business-Cycle
Business cycle is similar, and the time series data mon rules, which includes :
Output fluctuations are related to each other through different departments with time serial relation;
Industry product, consumption and investment fluctuate simultaneously with cycle, and also the government buy;
Investment changes much more severely than consumption;
Employment is with the cycle while unemployment is against cycle;
Real wage and average productivity is with the cycle, and the former is only slightly;
Currency supply and stock price is with cycle and lead other elements;
Inflation and nominal interest is with cycle and lag;
Real interest is