文档介绍：The Positive Role of Overconfidence and
Optimism in Investment Policy∗
by
Simon Gervais†
J. B. Heaton‡
Terrance Odean§
4 September 2002
∗This paper is an updated version of a previous working paper, “Capital Budgeting in the Presence of
Managerial Overconfidence and Optimism,” by the same authors. Financial support by the Rodney L. White
Center for Financial Research is gratefully acknowledged. The authors would like to thank Andrew Abel,
Jonathan Berk, Domenico Cuoco, David Denis, Janice Eberly, Robert Goldstein, Peter Swan, and seminar
participants at the 2000 meetings of the European Finance Association, the 2001 meetings of the American
Finance Association, and the Wharton School for ments and suggestions. Heaton acknowledges that
the opinions expressed here are his own, and do not reflect the position of Bartlit Beck Herman Palenchar
& Scott or its attorneys. All remaining errors are of course the authors’ responsibility.
†Finance Department, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Steinberg Hall - Dietrich Hall, Suite
2300, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6367, ******@, (215) 898-2370.
‡Adjunct Associate Professor of Finance, Duke University Fuqua School of Business and Duke Global
Capital Markets Center, and Associate, Bartlit Beck Herman Palenchar & Scott, 54 West Hubbard, Suite
300, Chicago, IL 60610, jb.******@bartlit-, (312) 494-4425.
§Haas School of Business, 545 Student Services #1900, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley,
CA 94720-1900, ******@, (510) 642-6767.
The Positive Role of Overconfidence and
Optimism in Investment Policy
Abstract
We use a simple capital budgeting problem to contrast the decisions of overconfident, optimistic
managers with those of rational managers. We reach the surprising conclusion that managerial
overconfidence and optimism can increase the value of the firm. Risk-averse rational managers will
postpone the decision to exercise real options longer than