文档介绍：Y E U
YANG-EN UNIVERSITY
计量经济学论文
题目:福建省居民消费水平的一个计量模型
姓名: 方芳
院系: 财政金融学院
专业: 金融
班级: 070102
学号: 0**********
指导老师: 舒辅琪副教授
二O一 O 年三月十五日
目录
摘要…………………………………………………………3 Abstract ……………………………………………………………… 4
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内容摘要
众所周知,收入水平是决定居民消费水平的根本因素,要提高居民的消费能力,必须提高他们的收入水平,只有这样人们才有更多的钱能够消费。而由马歇尔的消费者行为理论可知,居民的人均消费支出还受到人均GDP、居民消费价格指数、银行储蓄利率人等因素的影响。因此,去掉。舒.
本文选取了1979-2008年间福建省居民的人均消费水平、人均可支配收入、人均GDP、消费价格指数和存款基准利率的相关数据,通过运用Eviews,对福建省近30年的相关数据做了一系列的分析,如回归分析、相关分析,单位根检验等,并得出了几个重要的结论:各解释变量间存在着相关性;模拟预测出2009年的人均消费为10316元,实际值为10285元,%。由此可见,人均消费水平受收入等因素的影响。因此,必须致力于缩小经济发展的不平衡性,进而缩小收入差距,以提高整个社会的边际消费倾向,促进经济增长、提高居民消费。
关键词: 居民消费水平、居民人均可支配收入、人均GDP、居民消费价格指数、
存款基准利率
Abstract
As we all know, e level is the fundamental factor in consumption. In order to improve the consumption capacity, we must improve their e level with more money. By Marshall known theory of consumer behavior, per capita consumption expenditure is also been effected by GDP, consumer price index, bank savings interest rates and so on. Therefore, this article selected the datas of per capita consumption, disposable e, per capita GDP, consumer price index and the benchmark deposit interest rate from Fujian Province among 1979 to to the datas,I make use of Eviews to do a series of data analysis, such as regression analysis, correlation analysis, unit root test, etc. And draw several important conclusions: there is a correlation between variables; simulated predicted per capita consumption in 2009 is 10,316 yuan, and the actual is10,285 yuan. The relative prediction error is less than %.The result is that per capita consumption levels are effected by e and other factors. Therefore, we should take more attention to reducing the imbalance of economic development, to diminish the e gap, to increase the margin