文档介绍：“囚徒困境”中非纳什均衡出现的可能性及其原因分析
杨国强
(云南财贸学院财政金融学院,云南昆明 650221)
摘要:“囚徒困境”博弈是完全信息静态博弈的典型例子,被认为是上策纳什均衡,具有必然性,但在现实中非纳什均衡也同样出现。本文就“囚徒困境”中非纳什均衡出现的问题,对博弈的前提假设完全理性、完全信息以及概率进行了分析,得出的结论是:完全理性中的整体思维方式和概率为零的事件的发生以及完全信息等于一致信念时引起的不确定性,都可能导致非纳什均衡出现,而其出现的可能性则取决于采取整体思维方式的人的比例。
关键词:囚徒困境;完全理性;概率;完全信息;整体思维方式
The Analysis about the Probability and Reasons of Non-Nash Equilibrium in Prisoners’ Dilemma
YANG Guo-qiang
(Finance and Banking School,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China)
Abstract: The prisoners’ dilemma, which is the representative example plete information static game, is deemed to dominant-strategy Nash equilibrium and has the inevitability, but in fact non-Nash equilibrium also appears. To the question of non-Nash equilibrium in prisoners’ dilemma, this paper makes an analysis to Game Theory’s hypothesis: complete rationality, complete information and probability, and gets a result: systems thinking style plete rationality, the happen of the event of zero probability, and the uncertainty that is brought out plete information is concordant beliefs, all can bring the appearance of non-Nash equilibrium, and the probability of appearance is decided by the proportion of men who think in systems thinking style.
Key Words: prisoners’ dilemma; complete rationality; probability; complete information; systems thinking style
“囚徒困境”博弈是图克(Tucker)1950年提出的一个著名的博弈模型,是完全信息静