文档介绍：河北大学 2011 级本科生学年论文
我国城乡 CPI 关联性的实证研究
摘要
CPI 具有监督、预警我国经济发展是否健康的功能。CPI 是分析宏观经济变动的重要要
指标,它不仅可以衡量物价水平的变动,还能推断消费品价格对城乡居民生活支出的影响
以及随时提醒通货膨胀的程度。近年来,伴随着经济的快速增长,我国的城乡居民收入差
距越来越大,政府对城乡差异也越来越重视,统筹城乡发展成为贯彻落实科学发展观的重
要内容。我国城市和农村 CPI 之间存在的差异明显,是什么原因导致了我国城乡 CPI 变动
的差异?本文在理论探讨的基础上进行实证分析,通过时间序列的协整理论和建立 vaR 模
型,分析城乡 CPI 的差异,研究城乡居民消费价格指数差异,降低农村通货膨胀率,提高
居民消费水平,意义重大。本文重在观察和城乡 CPI 的走势,发现城乡 CPI 的长期均衡且
互相影响,有助于从结构上正确认识和监控 CPI 的变动。
关键字: 城市 CPI 农村 CPI 协整 VAR 模型
河北大学 2011 级本科生学年论文
ABSTRACT
CPI has the function of the monitoring, early warning and the economic development of
our country whether health. CPI is one of the important to analysis of changes in the
macroeconomic indicators, it not only can measure changes in the price level, can also infer
that consumer prices to the influence of urban and rural residents' living expenses and
remind the degree of inflation. In recent years, with the rapid growth of economy, our
country's urban and rural residents e gap is more and more big, the administration
of urban and rural differences is ing more and more attention, urban and rural
development as a whole to e the important content of carrying out scientific
development view. The gap between urban and rural areas in our country the CPI, what
causes the differences of the rural and urban CPI changes? This paper makes an empirical
analysis on the basis of the theory, through the time series cointegration theory and vaR
model, analysis of urban and rural differences in the CPI, the research of urban and rural
residents consumption price index differences, reduce rural inflation, improve the level of
residents' consumption, is of great significance. This paper focuses on observation and CPI
fluctuations of urban and rural areas, that CPI of the long-term equilibrium between
urban and rural areas and affect each other, help to structurally correct understanding and
monitor the change of the CPI.
KeywoRds: URban CPI RURal CPI cointegRated VAR model
河北大学 2011 级本科生学