文档介绍：首都经济贸易大学
硕士学位论文
现阶段我国居民消费和外汇储备的关系研究
姓名:乔姗姗
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:产业经济学
指导教师:伍旭川
2011-03
首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文《现阶段我国居民消费和外汇储备的关系研究》
摘要

改革开放三十年以来,中国经济快速发展,取得了举世瞩目的成绩。但是随着经
济规模的扩大和工业化进程的推进,我国经济增长出现严重偏斜,过分依赖投资和出
口拉动,导致现阶段居民消费需求严重不足,消费率持续下降。消费不足一方面影响
了我稳运行,另一方面导致生产过剩,使得对外贸易迅速增加外汇储备规
模不断扩大。巨额外汇储备不但造成外汇管理成本的上升,也加大了我国通货膨胀的
压力。本文从实际出发,研究现阶段我国居民消费和外汇储备之间的关系,对扩大内
需,促进居民消费,保持稳健康发展具有十分重要的意义。
本文从现阶段我国居民消费现状和外汇储备现状入手,回顾年以来,我国
居民消费和外汇储备的发展历程,剖析我国居民消费的特点和外汇储备存在的主要问
题。通过格兰杰检验,验证了我国居民消费与外汇储备之间存在因果关系。并进一步
通过戴蒙德两期模型,得出外汇储备是我国居民的消费时间偏好因子的增函数。从而
揭示出现阶段我国居民消费不足,外汇储备过快增长的原因。本文最后分析了制约居
民消费的因素,提出扩大国内需求,促进居民消费,使外汇储备保持适度规模的政策
建议。

关键字:居民消费;外汇储备;消费倾向

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首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文《现阶段我国居民消费和外汇储备的关系研究》
Abstract

In last three decades of reform and opening up, along with China's accession WTO,
Chinese economy is developing in rapid pace, making remarkable achievement. The
economic scale was expanded and industrialization process was put forward. However,
national economy growth is seriously unbalanced. The excessive dependence on
investment and exports led to severe shortage of consumer demand. At the same time the
scale of China's foreign exchange reserves are constantly expanding, not only causing huge
costs on foreign exchange reserves management, but also inflationary pressure. Study of
the relationship between consumption and foreign exchange reserves has great significance
in promoting consumption, adjusting the relationship between internal and external
demands, and leading national economy developed in healthy and stable way.
Based on the development process of consumer demand and foreign exchange reserves,
this thesis will mainly discuss the basic characteristics of household consumption and the
main features of foreign exchange reserves and analyze the internal relations between
household consumption and foreign exchange reserves growth. Through the establishment
econometric mo