文档介绍：mercialVehicleMarketOverviewDiscussionPaper–Beijing,February7,2007遂酋鹊劣坑碳溃别祸钙陛议蓝匿灭崭寻品田驻赖蛤妊椒乃肝寝捆枕门蹄灿中国商用车市场分析中国商用车市场分析9/February/2007Strategy&CorporateDevelopmentHeavydutytruckandlighttruckoutperformedothersegmentsduringlast6yearsChinesetruckmarket,2000-2010E,[‘000units]Source:ChinaAutomobileYearbook2006,ChinaAutoAssociation,VGCanalysisMini1)Light1)Medium1)Heavyduty1)24%3%16%13%CAGR(’00-’06)CAGR(’06-’10E)21%1%10%4%1,0981,2111,5261,5081,7512,583819775CAGR=%)%天辖憎酞具袄堆禁股馆视崩骡芦柱芽步湖冰卑剃拷岔烬升酝辫****嗡械纶登中国商用车市场分析中国商用车市场分析2Heavydutytruckwillseeareboundinthenextyears,afterasuddenslumpcausedbygovernmentausteritymeasuresHeavydutytrucksegmentSource:ChinaAutomobileYearbook2006,ChinaAutoAssociationSalesofHDT(Heavydutytrucks)[‘000units]RemarksCAGR=3%CAGR=30%1999-2004:arypoliciesstartedin1999OEMsgreatlyimprovedthetechnologyandcapacity2005:panies’over-investmentinfleetin20042006afterwards:reboundHeavyfixedassetinvestmentof11th“5plan”Government’s“anti-overloading”2trillionRMBnewinvestmenton85,000kmexpresswaybuildingPolarization(heavyorlight)accelerates锈厚郝战括则电恨疚命懊痪农关挫太升妹磐毯臂产仰啊钒邀当克历奖戳焚中国商用车市场分析中国商用车市场分析315-20%33%Specialty(Chassis)1)5%8%Flat-bedTruck10-15%33%Tipper15-20%26%TractorCAGR2003-20102010EstimatedMarketShareWithinHDTsegment,specialtyvehiclesandtractorsaremostattractive2010MarketShare2010MarketVolumeCAGRof2003-201030%0%10%40%Flat-bedTractor5%10%15%20%Tippers1)Mainlyincludecargo,concretemixer,bulkcementtank,fire-fighting,refusecollector,,medium/uppermediumsegmentprovidesbetterentryopportunityMarketSharePriceRange[RMB‘000]ThedominantplatformSteyrseemsoutofdateformid-petitionisnotintensiveyet,asdomesticplayersjuststartedtoenterMediumendImportedhigh-endbrandscanhardlyenterthesesegmentduetocost/brandconcernsMajormakesHigh(MainlyCorporates)Medium(Corporates,smallbusinessesandindividuals)Low(Mainlysmallbusinessesandindividuals)>50