文档介绍：What makes your stock price go up and down
KEVIN P. COYNE AND JONATHAN W. WITTER
The McKinsey Quarterly, 2002 Number 2
CEOs always want to know how the market will react to new strategies and other major decisions. Will pany’s shareholders agree with a particular move, or will they fail to understand the motives behind it and punish the stock accordingly? And what can management do to improve the e?
Trying to predict stock price movements is necessary, of course. After all, when stock prices fall, the cost of borrowing and of issuing new equity can rise, and falling stock prices can both undercut the confidence of employees and customers and handicap mergers. Unfortunately, however, most of these predictions are no more than rough guesses, because the tools CEOs use to make them are not very accurate. Net present value (NPV) may be useful for estimating the long-term intrinsic value of shares, but it is famously unreliable for predicting their price over the next few quarters. Conversations with sample groups of investors and analysts, conducted by pany or by investment bankers, are no more reliable for gauging market reactions.
But executives can dramatically improve the accuracy of their predictions. By adopting a more systematic, rigorous approach, corporate leaders can learn to understand individual investors as thoroughly as panies now understand each of their merci