文档介绍：Using spatial microsimulation in a spatial decision support systemSpecial session on Perspectives on Population Change and ImpactsRobert Tanton15 November20142Authors?Robert Tanton, NATSEM, Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, University of Canberra?Yogi Vidyattama, NATSEM, Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, University of Canberra3Initial Thinking?Still some way to go…4Structure?The Problem●Planning for population growth?One solution●Spatial Decision Support Systems?Spatial Microsimulation?How to incorporate spatial microsimulation into an SDSS?Advantages and Disadvantages of this approach?Conclusions5The Problem?Population growth with constraints●Demographic models based on births, deaths and migration●No constraints–Land–Food–Energy–Water?How inform future planning?6Example of the ACT?Land-Locked?Area to the South●national park?Areas can’t expand●Hills and monwealth land●Lakes7Example of the ACT?Using a ponent method, ACT population predicted to grow from 390,000 people (2014) to 682,000 people (2054)?Where will all these people go?8One Solution?Spatial Decision Support System●Provide data to support planner’s decision making process●Spatial planning with constraints9What is an SDSS??To provide data to support the decision making process and allow the decision makers to resolve semi-structured or ill-structured spatial decision problems.?Final solution not given by program due plexity - provides scenarios to help decision makers plan●“What would happen if birth rates increased by X?”–Population would increase by Y, water needed would increase by W, etc●(Chakroun and Benie, 2005)10Spatial Microsimulation?Small area estimation technique that derives a synthetic dataset for each small area?Synthetic dataset for small area based on real data from survey pletely synthetic●Use survey data with reweighting or selection●pletely synthetic if don’t have survey with information required?Provides unit record data for all small areas?Use this for cross-ta