文档介绍：内蒙古师范大学硕士学位论文力SD模型的3种仿真方案。选取了GDP、总人121、总耗水量和污水排放量4个指标作为模型的敏感因素,制定了高方案、中方案和低方案等3 中仿真方案,并对方案的结果进行了分析和比较,认为中方案预测结果较适合呼包鄂城市群发展情况。中方案预测结果为,到2020年,,, 亿m3。 3、根据呼包鄂城市群生态承载力SD模型分析结果和仿真方案结果分析,对呼包鄂城市群生态承载力综合建设方面提出了一些对策与建议: (1)限制总人口的大幅度增长,合理调整人口城乡结构,控制迁入人口数量;(2)适当控制经济增长速度过快,应注重稳步发展;(3)加强环境保护?观念,做好环境保护宣传工作,提高环境保护意识;(4)合理开发利用资源,不能只注重经济效益而忽略了区域生态系统的平衡和承载能力的有限;(5)完善区域发展战略,从区域生态承载力的整体观出发,·对区域经济、人口、环境和资源等因素进行规划;(6)创新理念,学习国内外生态建设方面成功的经验,并找出科学的最适的区域发展路线;(7)完善规章制度和相关法律;(8)发展资源节约型、环境友好型经济,改善区域生态承载力,促进区域内经济、人口、环境和资源等多方面的共同健康发展。关键词:生态承载力,系统动力学模型,呼包鄂城市群 ABSTRACT Along with world popu lati on’S growth,the rate of economic development isexcessively quickly changing,the resource development using intensity enlargement and theenvironment question’S aggravating,problems such as the ecosystem to be destroyed,to lose balance and surpasses its oneself carrymg capacity are ecosystem iS plex system which isformed by theinteractionand themutual influence f'onns of thepopulation,the economy,the environment andthe resources and SO on. GDP ofHubaoe urban agglomeration reached 2008,accounting %the capita GDP -yuan,much higher than th6per capita GDP‘Was 32, Mongolia,and China’Sper capita GDP of 22, total population of Hubaoe urban agglomeration achieved population of urban was , 0%of totalpopulation,in 2008;The totalnumber ofwater resources ofHubaoe urban agglomeration was ,theconsumption ofwater resources was . which was %of thetotalnumber of water resources;the number of sewage emissions drop to tons in2008 from tons rapid economic growth,the proportion ofurban population change,resource consumption and environmental pollutants accelerate emission reductions andother problems inHubaoe urbanagglomeration,mav cause theecological carryingcapacity ofHubaoe urban agg