文档介绍：专业资料专业专心专注本科生毕业设计(论文) 题目: 姓名: 学号: 学院: 专业: 年级: 指导教师: (签名) 年月日专业资料专业专心专注电力系统整点负荷预测研究摘要短期负荷预测在电力系统中有着举足轻重的作用,是电力系统最基本的工作之一,准确的负荷预测为电力系统的稳定,可靠,经济的运行提供了便利条件。随着我国电力经济进一步发展,负荷预测对电力系统的经济效益和国民经济的影响越来越大。负荷预测的精度的保证成为现在电力科学人员的重要工作,负荷预测误差大直接导致导致成本增加,电力系统调度难度变大等后果。本文简单阐述电力系统负荷预测的内容,负荷的特点。并介绍几种国内外所用的短期负荷预测的方法和发展趋势,比较其优缺点,说明人工神经网络在处理短期负荷预测这类问题有自适应,自主学****的优点。本文将利用人工神经网络 BP 算法来进行短期负荷的预测研究,这种方法主要是利用人工神经网络的非线性逼近功能来实现的。本文将对电力系统短期负荷预测进行简单的理论介绍,着重讲述了神经网络的 BP 算法并将其应用于负荷预测研究的计算过程。本文技术要求学****日负荷的特点以及建立神经网络模型,确定三层网络的节点数目,选好传递函数和初始权值。建好模型之后,利用原始的 5到 20 日的整点负荷数据来预测第 21, 22及 23日的整点负荷数据,用 MATLAB 编写程序进行网络训练,训练出结果之后对其进行分析,画出负荷数据变化曲线和原始数据的曲线进行比较。由于本文没有考虑天气以及节假日等影响负荷变化的因素,所做出的仿真的误差精度不是很小。关键词:短期负荷预测;人工神经网络; BP 算法; 专业资料专业专心专注 The Power system integer point Load forecasting Abstract Short-term load forecasting plays an important role in the power system , It isone of the basic work of the power load forecasting is to provide convenient conditions for the power system to work stable, reliable, and the further development of China's electric power economy, Load forecasting has more affections on economic efficiency of the power system and the national economy. The guarantee of the accuracy of load forecasting now is the important work for Electric Power load forecasting error isa direct result of the increased costs, larger difficulty power system scheduling and other bad consequences. This paper briefly discusses the contents of the power system load forecasting and load introduced several domestic and foreign short-term load forecasting methods and its pare its advantages and disadvantages,make an explanation about artificial work has the advantages of adaptive and self-learning working on short load paper will make use of the work BP algorithm to study short load forecasting,This method is mainly using artificial work linear approximation to achieve. In this paper, power system short-term load forecasting will be briefly th