文档介绍：山西财经大学
硕士学位论文
山西省耕地资源可持续利用预警研究
姓名:冯曙
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:人口、资源与环境经济学
指导教师:段永蕙
2010-03-30
摘要
耕地资源是一种重要的资源,由于其不可再生性,决定了耕地资源必须向
着可持续利用方向发展。耕地资源的可持续利用关乎粮食安全、社会稳定与生
态安全。当前山西省耕地资源面临的问题日趋严重,耕地是否可持续利用影响
到山西的可持续发展。
本文从区域耕地资源可持续利用出发,以山西省为研究对象,对山西省耕
地的农业气候资源、分布、利用状况等情况的定性分析,发现耕地利用中存在
农用化学物质过量、成灾面积较大、耕地资源短缺等问题,并从经济学角度对
耕地利用中存在的问题进行了原因分析。对耕地资源预警研究首先以山西省耕
地数量为研究对象,根据统计数据和资料,通过灰色关联度理论探讨了耕地数
量变化的驱动力因子,找出主要因子为水土流失、城市化水平和农业建设投资,
同时也对耕地质量下降的警源进行了分析。然后通过建立耕地数量和质量的警
兆和警情指标,分析得到耕地资源已出现警情,对警情进行分析得知近年
警情较轻。通过(,)模型、线性回归模型等对人均耕地面积、建设占耕
地面积、粮食单产、化肥施用量等指标进行短期预测和警度预报,结果表明未
来几年警情有加重趋势, 年警情将达到重警,山西省耕地可持续利用前景
不乐观。最后,提出了相关建议与对策,为山西省耕地可持续利用提供参考。
【关键词】山西;耕地资源;可持续利用;预警

1
Abstract
Cultivated land is a very important resource , being non-renewable resource should be used in
a sustainable way. The sustainable utilization of cultivated land related to food security, social
stability and ecological security. Whether the cultivated land resources are sustainable influences
the sustainable development of Shan xi province.
Based on the sustainable development of regional cultivated land resources , this paper takes
Shan xi province as the research subject. The status of cultivated land resource is qualitatively
appraised form several aspects, such as: agricultural climate, distribution potential resource and
utilization current situation .etc.,and we found that agricultural chemicals in excess, disaster area
is larger, a shortage of arable land resources are problems in cultivated land use, Based on the
knowledge of economics , we analysis the reason why there are so many problems in the
cultivated land utilization. Firstly , this article analysis the driving force of cultivated land by the
grey theory based on the statistic and census data in Shan xi province,the main factors are soil
erosion, the level of the urbanization and construction investment, at the same time, we analyze
the factors which make the quality of the cultivat