文档介绍：Systems Approaches for
EOR Screening
Alistair Fletcher
Parr Systems Pty. Ltd
Curtin University of Technology
Perth, Australia
Representing Uncertainty
Evidence that A Evidence that A
is essful Uncertainty is not essful
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Systems Concepts
Uncertainty A property of information – randomness, fuzziness,
conflict, pleteness and relevance
Risk The likelihood of an uncertain event or behavior,
and its consequences for our intended purpose or
objectives, set in a context that needs to be
understood
Vulnerability Susceptibility to disproportionate damage from an
event or behaviour
Hazard A set of incubating preconditions for failure
Surprise An unexpected event – an unrecognised risk
The Nature of Uncertainty
Randomness Lack of a specific pattern in the data or evidence.
. noise in oil production figures – detecting oil uplift
Vagueness Imprecision of definition
. are we talking about low permeability, 10mD, , a
high permeability streak in a low permeability matrix?
Conflict Equivocation, ambiguity, anomaly or inconsistency in the data or
evidence.
. a major difference in the log and core derived permeability
pleteness That which we do not know, know we do not know, do not know
we do not know
. we are unable to define all the possible alternatives, an
effect left out of our model.
Relevance Issues and