文档介绍：气候变化背景下的我国农业水资源与粮食生产安全
彭世彰豆沿斌徐俊增缴锡云
(河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京 210098)
摘要:全球气候正经历着一场以变暖为主要特征的显著变化。我国是一个发展中的农业大国,农业资源短缺,对气候变化反应敏感,未来气候变化将对我国的农业生产形成极大的冲击。本文针对气候变化的特点和趋势,从降水、蒸发、径流等水文循环过程的变化趋势,旱涝等农业自然灾害的发生频率和种植制度及种植结构的改变来探讨未来气候变化对我国农业水资源和粮食生产的影响。未来我国农业水资源供需矛盾将更加突出,粮食生产面临挑战。
关键词:气候变化农业水资源粮食生产水稻生产
Abstrcat: Global climate is undergoing a significant change with the main characteristic of warming. Our nation is a big developing agricultural country, Shortage of agricultural resources, Sensitive to climate change, so climate change will make greatly impact to our country’s agricultural production in the future. In this paper, with the characteristics and trends of climate change, from the tendency of precipitation, evaporation, runoff and other hydrological cycle, frequency of agricultural and natural disasters such as drought and flood, changes of cropping systems and planting structure to discuss the impact of future climate change to our country’s agricultural water resources and food production. In the future, Contradiction between supply and demand will e more sharply of agricultural water resources and we will face more challenges to food production.
Keyword: climate change agricultural water resources food production rice production
问题提出
近百年来,地球气候正经历一次以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,℃()。如果人类继续按照目前速度排放温室气体,那么CO2有效倍增将出现在2060年左右,℃-℃[1]。气候变化国家评估报告(2007)指出,过去100年