文档介绍：Copyright ? 2012 Pearson Education. All rights reserved. 8- 1 Preview ? To understand the characteristics of business cycles ? To examine the economic data that underlie the business cycle ? To understand how the two schools of thought, Keynesian and classical economics, view the role of governments in the business cycle ? To develop a theory of business cycles and an economic model to explain those fluctuations Copyright ? 2012 Pearson Education. All rights reserved. 8- 2 Business Cycle Basics ? Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell defined business cycles as fluctuations in aggregate economic activity in which many economic activities expand and contract together in a recurring, but not a periodic, fashion ? Economic activity typically follows a wavy line over time with four phases: – Trough – Business cycle expansion (boom) – Peak – Business cycle contraction (recession) Copyright ? 2012 Pearson Education. All rights reserved. 8- 3 FIGURE The Business Cycle Copyright ? 2012 Pearson Education. All rights reserved. 8- 4 Box: Dating Business Cycles ? Recessions usually begin with lengthy periods of falling real GDP, but there are exceptions: – In the 2001 recession, GDP never fell more than one quarter in a row – In the most recent recession, GDP fell in 2008 even though the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates the onset of this recession as December 2007 Copyright ? 2012 Pearson Education. All rights reserved. 8- 5 TABLE NBER Business Cycle Dates Copyright ? 2012 Pearson Education. All rights reserved. 8- 6 Movement of Business Cycle Variables ? Many economic activities move together over the business cycle ? Co-movement of economic variables is either: – Procyclical — a variable moves up during expansions and down during contractions – Countercyclical — a variable moves down during expansions and up during contractions – Acyclical — a variable with ups and downs that do not c