文档介绍：人口老龄化背景下的中国经济增长研究
陈彦斌程冬戴轶群
(中国人民大学经济学院,北京,100872)

摘要:进入 21 世纪,中国经济增长将面临人口老龄化加速推进的严峻挑战。本文从长期供给面和短
期需求面两个视角深入剖析人口老龄化冲击对中国经济增长的影响机制。笔者发现,老龄化在供给面对经
济增长的负面压力主要体现在其对劳动规模的不利影响,而经济个体在人力资本投资上的理性调整将能够
缓解这种负面效应;另外,老龄化在需求面将对消费、投资和净出口三个因素都形成一定的压制。从影响
机制出发,笔者建议政府要延迟退休年龄,推动农村劳动力转移,增加教育投入并积极调整需求管理政
策。
关键词:人口老龄化经济增长人力资本投资需求管理政策

The Economic Growth of China under the Background of An
Accelerated Ageing Population
CHEN Yanbin, CHENG Dong, DAI Yiqun
(School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872)
Abstract: China’s economic growth will encounter great challenges with the arrival of accelerated ageing
population. In this paper, we try to investigate extensively the channels through with an ageing population will
affect the economic growth of China. Basically, we focus on channels related to long-run supply side and short-run
demand side. From the investigation, we find that an accelerated ageing population will bring great negative
shocks to long-run labor supply, while the adjustment of human capital from household maximization will cancel
out part of the negative effects. What’s more, our study shows that an ageing population will result in broad
negative effects to aggregate consumption, investment exports. Finally, based on the research on channels,
we mend that Chinese government should take efforts to release more labor force, promote the investment of
human capital, as well as optimize its demand-management policy.
Key Words: Ageing population; Economic growth; Human capital investment; Demand-management policy.

一、引言

如今,人口老龄化问题逐渐成为全球关注的热点,世界许多国家已经或即将迈入老龄
化社会。虽然非洲和拉丁美洲等一些发展中国家的人口结构尚处于年轻阶段,但是从全球
范围看,人口老龄化已是不争的事实。2011 年在全世界亿人口中,有亿为 60 岁以
上的老年人,占总人口的 11%。而根据联合国经济和社会事务部人口司的预测,到 2100
年,全球 60 岁以上老年人的比重将会达到 28%。
老龄化作为人口再生产过程的自然结果,却可能对一国的经济增长造成负面压制,这
一点已引起各国政府和学者的广泛关注。一方面,老龄化将直接降低一国生产性劳动年龄
人口的比重,并在长期中压缩劳动供给的规模。以老龄化程度较高的西欧和日本为例,劳
动供给短缺和劳动成本上涨压力已成为生产性企业的长期困扰,进而严重制约着经济增长
- 1 -
的活力。另一方面,老