文档介绍：Fundamental Long-Term Risks And the New Financial Order
Prof. Robert J. Shiller
Yale University
Financial Modernization
Fundamental role of financial institutions
Manage risks
Maintain incentives
Effective financial institutions are found in all essful economies
Institutions must continually be adapted to take account of changing nature of risks, new technology
China’s Spectacular Modernization Since 1990
Established stock market
Issued shares to public
Established futures markets
Created Insurance industry
Personal credit/Mortgage
Speculation
Human impulse towards gambling, must be directed towards constructive ends
Capitalism is a set of rules that redirects the human gambling urge in constructive directions
Capitalism is vulnerable to market-generated instabilities
China’s Uncertainties
Will the spectacular economic growth continue?
As low wage advantage gradually disappears, will be harder to sustain growth
Possible disruptions of smooth-functioning economic system can slow growth.
Growth of 3% a year vs. 9% a year: means China overall catches up to advanced countries in 90 years instead of 30 years
Economic Inequality
Economic incentives must allow for some chance of ess—and of failure
Some inequality is necessary
Worldwide trend towards greater inequality is seen in China as well
China’s Gini coefficient has risen from in 1980 to in 2000, not just due to farmers’ es
Important Reasons for Growing Chinese Inequality
Transition to market economy in China is not making everyone essful at once
New information technology appears to tend to concentrate wealth (in China and elsewhere)
Assembly line workers
Translators
Chess players
Winner-Take-All Effect of Information Technology
Information technology allows search to find the best product, and replication of the best product
Phonographs and singers
Television and actors and athletes
Rapid acceleration of information technology may create the same effect in many more occupations
Norbert Wien