文档介绍：第 34 卷第 7 期电网技术 Vol. 34 No. 7 2010 年 7 月 Power System Technology Jul. 2010 文章编号: 1000-3673 ( 2010 ) 07-0164-05 中图分类号: TM 614 文献标志码: A 学科代码: 470·4047 采用改进模糊层次分析法的风速预测模型黄文杰,傅砾,肖盛(华北电力大学,北京市昌平区 102206 ) A Predictive Model of Wind Speed Based on Improved Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process HUANG Wen-jie, FU Li, XIAO Sheng (North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: In view of strong randomness of wind speed and based on improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a combined model to predict wind speed is presented. Taking predictive cycle of wind speed, fluctuation of wind speed and the reliability of predictor to th e predictive model as objectives, by means of fuzzy judgment matrix the optimal weight of the combined model is determined. With the bined model, various uncertain fa ctors impacting wind speed prediction can prehensively taken into account, and the expert experiences can be led in on the basis of synthesizing prediction results from different predictive models. Analysis on results of calculation example s hows that the prediction results by the proposed predictive model are more accurate than those from traditional single predictive model. KEY WORDS: wind sp