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针对引力模型的桂越贸易影响因素分析.pdf

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针对引力模型的桂越贸易影响因素分析.pdf

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文档介绍:硕十学位论文摘要近几年来,大湄公河次区域经济合作的提出、中越“两廊一圈"合作、中国一东盟自由贸易区的建立、泛北部湾经济合作、泛珠三角经济合作、南宁一新加坡经济走廊建设等等一系列涉及自由贸易区建设、区域经济合作和区域性经济走廊建设项目的出台,为广西中越边境贸易提供了前所未有的发展机会。越南已连续11年成为广西第一大贸易伙伴,桂越贸易对广西经济、尤其是边境地区的经济发展起到了一定的推动作用。但近三年来,桂越之间贸易额增幅日趋减小,理清桂越贸易的促进因素和消极因素,对于进一步繁荣桂越贸易有着重要意义。新贸易理论特别是边境贸易理论表明,边境贸易中存在积极因素,如特殊的地缘优势、人文优势、政策优势、资源优势。同时,桂越之间也存在消极因素,如交通不便、出口结构与市场需求不畅、产业结构布局不合理及外贸结算渠道单一等问题。利用赋予新生变量的国际贸易引力模型对桂越贸易的边界效应进行实证分析,其基本结论直接或者间接证明了桂越贸易的消极因素和积极因素。因此,要推动桂越贸易进一步发展,就应该采取大力调整出口贸易结构,优化市场结构;创办边境自由贸易区,建设中越边境贸易加工基地;大力夯实基础设施建设,改善投资环境;完善贸易管理机制,稳定边境贸易政策等措施。关键词:桂越贸易;影响因素;引力模型;实证分析 Ab stract In recent years,the Greater Mekong Subregion economic cooperation,Two Corridors and One Ring ofcooperation between China and Vietnam, Free Trade Area,the Pan—Tonkin Gulf economic cooperation,economic COoperation inPan-Pearl River Delta,Nanning—Singapore Economic series of free trade zones,regional economic cooperation and regional economic corridor projects have provided unprecedented opportunities fordevelopment ofborder trade between Guangxi and has been the largest trade partner of Guangxi for 1 years,which has played a certain role forGuangxi economV. particularly theeconomic development ofborder over thepast three years, increase speed oftradevolume between Guangxi andVietnam reduced,knowing the promotion and negative factors oftrade between Guangxi and Vietnam has great significance forthefurtherprosperity oftradebetween Guangxi and trade theories,especially theories ofborder trade,envidence that mediating effect exists inborder trade,such asthespecial geographical,culturaI advantages,the policy advantages,,there are shielding effectbetween Guangxi and Vietnam such as transport facilities,market demand and poor export structure. irrational industrial structure and layout of a single channel of foreign trade settlement and new gravity model ofinternational trade variables given toempirical analyze border effect oftra