文档介绍：沿河县人口预测目录题目:沿河县人口预测.................................................4 摘要................................................................4 ABSTRACT............................................................4 1引言..............................................................5 人口预测......................................................5 研究背景......................................................5 2沿河县人口发展趋势概况............................................5 3问题的描述与分析..................................................6 4人口的预测方法....................................................6 5模型一............................................................7 模型的假设....................................................7 符号的说明....................................................7 指数增长模型预测—(Malthus ).................................7 模型的验证情况................................................8 模型的应用与推广..............................................9 6模型二............................................................9 模型的假设....................................................9 符号的说明...................................................10 阻滞增长模型预测—(Logistic )...............................10 模型的验证情况...............................................10 7对两种模型的分析与讨论...........................................11 模型的分析...................................................11 模型的讨论...................................................11 8预测沿河县 2014-2020 年的户籍总人口...............................12 9预测建议.........................................................12 参考文献...........................................................14 致谢...............................................................15 -1- 沿河县人口预测摘要本文是分析沿河县 2003-2012 年的实际人口及年自然增长率,用简单的合理的两种模型进行预测,预测显示出沿河县 2020 年的户籍总人口。关键字:预测;人口数量;马尔萨斯; Logistic Prediction of population Tujia Autonomous County along the river College of mathematics and applied mathematics He Jinfeng ABSTRACT This paper isthe analysis ofthe natural growth rat